# It's The AI Economy, Stupid Canonical: https://mosiah.org/articles/it-s-the-ai-economy-stupid/ Interactive: https://mosiah.org/#Articles%2Fit-s-the-ai-economy-stupid # It's The AI Economy, Stupid //The Looming Employment Catastrophe// //Related:// [[sources|Article Sources/it-s-the-ai-economy-stupid]] · [[notes|Article Notes/it-s-the-ai-economy-stupid]] · [[metadata|Article Metadata/it-s-the-ai-economy-stupid]] · [[Published Pieces]] In the ongoing debates surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), we're overlooking a crucial perspective: the concept of Artificial Savant Intelligence (ASI) and its far-reaching implications for the future of employment. While various camps argue about existential risks, ethics, and geopolitical implications, a more immediate and potentially catastrophic crisis looms on the horizon: the compounding impact of ASI-driven automation on a wide range of jobs, from STEM fields to non-specialized administrative roles. ## The Artificial Savant Intelligence Thesis The ASI thesis posits that as AI systems advance, they will increasingly exhibit savant-like characteristics: 1. Exceptional capabilities in STEM-related tasks and logical reasoning 2. Proficiency in processing and generating language (both natural and programming) 3. Vast knowledge retrieval and synthesis abilities 4. Ability to follow complex rule-based procedures consistently 5. Struggles with nuanced communication, humor, and context-dependent tasks 6. Hyperliteral interpretation of information and instructions Importantly, the ASI thesis suggests that the gap between AI's rule-based, procedural capabilities and more nuanced, creative human skills will only widen as we apply more synthetic data, advanced search techniques, and improved reasoning capabilities. ## The Real Threat: Compounding Job Loss Across Multiple Sectors Unlike previous technological revolutions, ASI-driven automation has the potential to eliminate jobs across a wide spectrum of industries, with a particular focus on: 1. STEM fields: Software development, data analysis, scientific research 2. Administrative roles: Data entry, document processing, basic customer service 3. Financial services: Accounting, bookkeeping, financial analysis 4. Legal services: Document review, contract analysis, legal research 5. Human resources: Resume screening, basic employee management tasks 6. Middle management: Report generation, performance tracking, resource allocation The truly alarming aspect is the compounding nature of this job loss: 1. As ASI systems improve, they can automate increasingly complex tasks in these fields. 2. This improvement accelerates as ASI is applied to its own development and to process optimization. 3. Each wave of automation can potentially fuel the next, creating a snowball effect. ## The Economic Domino Effect The implications of widespread unemployment across these sectors go far beyond individual hardship. We're looking at a potential economic catastrophe: 1. Mass unemployment in both high-paying STEM jobs and middle-income administrative roles leads to drastically reduced consumer spending. 2. This decrease in spending hurts businesses across all sectors, creating more job losses. 3. A bifurcation in corporate earnings emerges: AI-adjacent companies prosper while others suffer. 4. Financial markets may see increased volatility, benefiting some while increasing systemic risks. 5. The combination could trigger what might be called "the greatest depression." ## Inadequate Responses and Misaligned Incentives When confronted with these scenarios, AI futurists often fall back on two thought-terminating clichés: 1. "New jobs will replace old ones": While historically true, this overlooks the potential mismatch in timing and skills. Job destruction could far outpace job creation in areas where humans still maintain an advantage (like creative, empathetic, and highly specialized roles). Actuaries will lose their jobs far faster than they re-skill as massage therapists. 2. "Universal Basic Income (UBI) will solve it": This glosses over the complex political and economic challenges of implementing UBI, especially in a world where both high-paying STEM jobs and middle-income administrative jobs are disappearing. A UBI that provides for a comfortable lifestyle would entail a massive unprecedented multiplicative increase in social safety net spending. Who’s gonna pay for that? Moreover, the immediate business opportunity for AI investors lies in automating existing work, not inventing new jobs. Think replacing call centers with voice chatbots. This misalignment of incentives means the private sector is unlikely to drive significant job creation in the short-term in response to ASI-driven automation. ## The Role of Regulatory Protection It's crucial to note that jobs with strong regulatory protection (such as licensed professions like doctors, lawyers, and certain financial advisors) may be somewhat insulated from the immediate impact of ASI. However, this creates a stark divide: 1. Protected professions may maintain their status quo longer, potentially leading to increased income inequality. 2. Unprotected jobs, which make up a significant portion of the workforce, are at immediate risk. 3. There may be increasing pressure to deregulate certain professions, or enabling adjacent professions to provide substituting services, potentially exposing even protected professionals to ASI automation in the future. ## The Next Four Years: A Critical Timeframe We are at a pivotal moment. Within the next four years, the trajectory of ASI and its impact on the economy will become clearer: - This article was written given a prompt using GPT-4-level (~2023) technology. - By 2025, GPT-5-level AI should be capable of autonomously managing complex one-off tasks in STEM fields and handling a wide range of administrative duties. - By 2027, GPT-6-level AI may be capable of performing most white-collar work autonomously, including software development, data analysis, financial reporting, and basic legal and HR tasks. The remaining tasks that ASI cannot perform (likely those requiring high levels of creativity, emotional intelligence, and nuanced understanding) will face tremendous pressure to be adapted for automation due to the significant incentives involved. ## A Call for Urgent Action We need to shift the conversation from abstract, far-future scenarios to the very real and imminent challenges of ASI-driven job displacement across multiple sectors. This requires: 1. Developing nuanced models of ASI's impact on employment, focusing on the differential between rule-based, procedural tasks and those requiring uniquely human qualities. 2. Exploring a range of policy responses beyond UBI, potentially including massive retraining programs for displaced workers to transition into roles that leverage uniquely human qualities. 3. Planning for periods of significant social strain as both high-paying STEM jobs and middle-income administrative jobs disappear faster than new opportunities can be created. 4. Considering the global implications of this shift to avoid exacerbating international inequalities. 5. Reassessing regulatory frameworks to balance job protection with the need for economic adaptation and innovation. The ASI revolution promises tremendous benefits in efficiency and productivity, but it also carries the seeds of unprecedented economic disruption. By focusing too much on speculative future scenarios of general AI, we risk being blindsided by the more immediate and potentially devastating crisis of ASI-driven unemployment and the economic crisis that’s likely to follow. It's time to redirect our attention to the compounding challenge of automation-driven unemployment, with a particular focus on the areas where ASI is likely to have the most immediate and profound impact. Our ability to navigate this transition may well determine the stability and prosperity of our societies in the coming decades. --- //Originally published on Choir Substack: [[https://choir.substack.com/p/its-the-ai-economy-stupid|https://choir.substack.com/p/its-the-ai-economy-stupid]].//